“The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.” That line from The Usual Suspects comes to mind as we look at the latest jobs report. On September 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the U.S. added 911,000 fewer jobs between April 2024 and March 2025 than first reported, cutting average monthly growth nearly in half. Revisions are part of the process, but this one is unusually large and shifts the story. In an election year, early higher job counts carry even more weight.
Why were the numbers overstated? Survey response rates have dropped to about 43% from 60% before the pandemic. Models estimating new business formation added to the overstatement. And beneath the surface, the labor market has not felt as strong for many households. Real incomes barely moved in 2024, with lower-income families falling behind while the top pulled ahead.
For employers, the implications are layered:
- Sector pressures: Hospitality, retail, and professional services were revised sharply lower.
- Staffing models: Softer demand raises the risk of overcapacity and makes flexibility critical.
- Consumer sentiment: A weaker labor market may dampen discretionary spending.
- Wages and costs: More workers may ease wage pressure, but expectations remain elevated.
- Policy backdrop: Softer data increases the odds of Fed rate cuts this month.
- Hiring dynamics: With more candidates available, the challenge shifts from filling roles quickly to finding the right fit.
For us at Highridge Search, we wanted to reflect most on hospitality given our focus. Teen employment fell by nearly 300,000 year-over-year, and about 5 million young workers are in hospitality with another 3.5 million in retail. Fewer teens are seeking jobs as more prioritize school and extracurriculars. Employers are hiring fewer too, as automation takes over entry-level tasks, older workers compete for roles, and higher wage floors make businesses more selective. There is also a substitution effect at play: replacing several part-time teens with fewer full-time workers. Since the BLS counts jobs rather than hours worked, this shift can reduce the number of jobs even if the overall labor supplied is the same.
As we reflect, some questions remain. How should leaders adjust when early jobs data can later be revised so dramatically? What needs to change in how the data is collected, especially as fewer employers respond to surveys? And how should employers plan talent strategies when headline numbers may overstate strength for months before being corrected?
